Source: South Dakota State University
by: Kaylee Wheeler, SDSU Extension Range Field Specialist
What are the current drought conditions?
Widespread drought conditions persist across the upper Great Plains into the beginning of 2025 (Figure 1). Nearly three-fourths of the region is experiencing abnormally dry conditions, while a third of the region is experiencing severe drought. Some areas in the western Dakotas and Nebraska have shown extreme drought conditions for several months now, while Wyoming has experienced widespread severe and extreme conditions. In general, conditions throughout the Great Plains region have steadily worsened with the lack of precipitation in the last three months. In South Dakota, much of the state has received 50% or less than normal precipitation since October 1, 2024 (Figure 2).
It is important for producers to assess fall precipitation, because it is very impactful for next year’s growing conditions. Especially in northern and mountainous states, snow can make up a significant amount of annual precipitation. In general, 10 inches of snow only equals 1 inch of rainfall.
Snow can play a significant role in increasing soil moisture levels and providing an insulating layer over the soil surface. It is important to leave pastures with adequate plant residue going into the dormant season to promote plant recovery and provide armor for the soil. Figure 3 shows an example of grass that was grazed short (no snow cover) compared to leaving adequate standing plant material (good snowpack).
Plant residue acts like a sponge to absorb moisture and maintain those stores far longer than bare soil in which moisture quickly evaporates. Additionally, for producers relying on overwintered crops, such as winter wheat, a good snow cover of at least 3 inches can prevent a substantial amount of winterkill on those plants (NDSU & USDA).
What are current climate outlooks predicting?
Current seasonal precipitation outlook shows equal chances to above normal probability of receiving precipitation in the upper Great Plains region (Figure 4). However, seasonal drought outlooks predict a persisting drought in the region, with no expected improvements in the coming few months (Figure 5).
Regardless of how dry your area is, regular monitoring of precipitation and pasture conditions should still occur. With a lack of fall and winter precipitation thus far, it will be extremely important to receive adequate spring precipitation before the growing season begins.
The South Dakota Mesonet website is a comprehensive resource that includes drought monitors, climate predictions, and current and historic local weather data. However, any producer can easily access up-to-date climate outlooks and weather data for their region through the U.S. Drought Monitor, the High Plains Regional Climate Center, and local Mesonet stations.
What are your plans for spring?
Although green grass is still far away, there are things to consider and plan for now. Given the current conditions and weather outlooks, delayed spring turnout and reduced stocking rates could be a very real possibility later in the year. If dormant-season precipitation is scarce, soil moisture can be quickly depleted, and the spring green-up can be severely compromised. If so, are you prepared to feed livestock until adequate forage growth occurs? If spring precipitation is scarce, forage growth could be limited. If so, are you prepared to reduce stocking rates?
The beginning of a new year is a good trigger date to investigate the following questions and plan ahead for spring conditions.
Moisture/Climate
- How much precipitation was received during last year’s growing season?
- How much precipitation was received during the fall?
- Are there chances of precipitation in the upcoming weeks?
- What drought conditions are being indicated now and predicted in the coming months?
Forage
- How much forage production occurred during last year’s growing season?
- When was the last grazing event in your pastures?
- What is the current condition of your pastures (how much residual forage, soil cover, etc.)?
- What are your current feed resources?
Livestock
- Are you maintaining herd flexibility (do you know which animals will be the first to go)?
- How long are you prepared to be able to feed livestock if new forage growth is limited?
What is your plan if drought persists?
Unfortunately, drought conditions will periodically occur and cannot be avoided. However, your management decisions can determine the impact of the drought on your business. Proactive decision making and regular monitoring are the key to drought management. Often it is the decisions made during the “good times” that determine success during the “bad times.” It is better to make decisions early, while you still have options, than to be forced into a decision. Thus, it is extremely important for producers to regularly assess precipitation and forage resources so they can manage livestock inventory accordingly. Hope for rain, but plan for drought!
Additionally, a written drought plan can be helpful to reduce emotion and make more-logical decisions. See Managing Drought Risk on the Ranch for a decision-making guide and example drought plans. For more information on climate and weather outlooks, contact SDSU State Climatologist, Laura Edwards. For more information on pasture monitoring and drought planning, contact SDSU Extension Range and Natural Resources staff.
