Source: Iowa State University
Cheese consumption edged up in 2023 after setting an all-time record in 2022. Americans ate about 42.3 pounds of cheese per capita, with increases in both American and cottage cheese. Cottage cheese consumption reached the highest level in four years with 2.1 pounds in 2023, up from 1.9 pounds in 2022.
The real rock-star of the industry was butter with Americans gobbling down 6.5 pounds in 2023. While US butter supply remains robust year over year, it has been trending down since May. This is putting pressure on prices, with grade AA butter trading down 1.87 percent per ton according to the CLAL survey from November 27.
If butter is the rock-star, then ice cream is the industry twerp. Regular ice cream saw its worst performance since records began, with US consumers indulging in just 11.7 pounds per person in 2023 compared to 12.8 pounds in 2022. With non-fat and low-fat products relatively flat year-over-year, maybe the American appetite for the more indulgent options may be shifting. This would seem to fit the downward trend in frozen dairy product consumption as a whole.
While maybe not a rock-star, domestic demand for high protein whey (WPC) along with strong export interest has lifted whey protein concentrate to levels not seen since February 2023.
Fluid milk consumption in the US continued to slip in 2023 reaching under 130 pounds per person. Consumption for 2023 was 128 pounds down from 130 in 2022. For perspective, the average American drinks 100 pounds less milk per year than in 1985. Making 14 years in a row that fluid milk consumption headed down. Total fluid milk sales of nearly 3.5 billion pounds in September dropped 1.6 percent compared to September 2023.
The USDA Economic Research Service notes that 90 percent of US residents do not meet the federal dietary requirements for dairy consumption even with the tripling of yogurt and cheese consumption since 1970. The research noted that milk consumption had fallen across adults, teenagers and children, with the sharpest decline since the early 2010s recorded among teenagers.
Year-to-date totals for 2024, adjusted for leap year were 0.5 percent higher relative to the January through September 2023. More than 31.8 billion pounds of milk were sold through September, and the increase compared to the prior year bucks the longer-term trend of decreasing milk consumption.
Demand for whole milk began increasing in 2014, growing 18 percent between 2013 and 2023. For the first nine months of 2024, 11.2 billion pounds of whole milk were sold, a rise of 2 percent. The other increases include lactose-free milk, eggnog, Class I drinkable yogurt, and other fluid products different from traditional or flavored milks.
Since Class I is the most expensive milk, if more milk returns to Class I due to increased demand, it will help lift producer milk checks. Increased fluid milk sales should tighten milk supplies as processors opt to bottle rather than process or manufacture dairy commodities, which could also bolster prices. That hinges on producers control their tradition urge toward over production as prices improve.
